A structural imbalance is taking shape in lab-grown diamonds, with inventory outpacing demand. Separately, March jewelry sales rose 5% year over year, while unit sales fell 10%, reinforcing price-driven growth.
Selling Price Points Rising
The jewelry market performed well in March, with average retail prices rising in the low double digits and lifting overall revenue.
Consumers continued to shift toward higher-priced items, and that shift intensified. Since September 2025, unit sales have been declining at the $1,000-and-below price point, while higher-priced categories generally saw growth.
In March, that threshold moved higher. Items priced at $2,500 and above drove unit growth, while lower price points saw further declines.
This pattern holds across both custom and finished jewelry.
It may prove temporary, but the direction over the past year is clear: lower-priced items are losing favor, while demand for higher-priced goods is strengthening. The implications for retailers are becoming harder to ignore.
Lab-Grown Diamond: A Growing Structural Imbalance
Tracking inventory of both loose and finished lab-grown diamond jewelry points to a longer-term structural imbalance: inventory is rising much faster than sales.
The ratio of lab-grown inventory to sales was in the high single digits in 2020. Since then, it has climbed into the low double digits, or up nearly 50%. At the same time, lab-grown diamonds, once fast-moving, are now sitting in inventory for longer periods.
In effect, inventory volumes are increasing while sell-through is weakening.
Part of this was predictable. Low prices, accessible payment terms, widespread memo availability, and growing consumer acceptance all supported rapid expansion.
However, for growers and manufacturers, this structural imbalance is a warning sign. After all, rising retailer purchases require increased production and growing capital investment.
What happens when consumer demand shifts? Not if, but when. The likely outcome is a classic bullwhip effect: consumers pull back, retailers cut orders, and manufacturers are left with excess capacity and inventory. What once drove growth begins to weigh on the business.
If you’ve been in the diamond industry long enough, you’ve experienced the bullwhip effect before. This time, however, it will include a massive offloading of memo goods shoved back into the midstream, a disturbing scenario.
For retailers, the risk is different but just as real. They are increasing their holding of a depreciating asset in a category facing price pressure. At the same time, American consumers are pulling back from lower-priced jewelry. For independents focused on sub-$1,000 price points, the squeeze will be felt.
The Bottom Line
Jewelry consumers continue to move upmarket, spending more per item and driving revenue growth buying more items.
The second takeaway is inventory discipline. Slowing sell-through impacts balance sheets. Cash flow may look healthy, but more capital is being tied up in inventory, and for many, lab-grown sell-through is declining.
If your assortment is heavily weighted toward lab-grown, that exposure is becoming harder to ignore.
The high-level figures above for the US jewelry market only scratch the surface. Tenoris provides comprehensive, detailed data that gives your business a competitive edge by uncovering trends, insights, and opportunities across the market.
Contact us to request a demo and learn more about the structural imbalance in lab-grown diamonds, and how our data can support smarter, more informed decisions.
